The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is precariously balancing two opposing objectives - maintaining easy financial condition in the domestic market, while ensuring external stability - and economists have started taking note. They say India is going through the classic trilemma of the 'Impossible Trinity'. The RBI cannot have an independent monetary policy (setting domestic interest rates) in an environment of an open capital account and flexible exchange rates. What is even more complicated for the central bank now is that financial market stability overlays all the other three objectives.
Since April, India has seen multiple strains of the coronanavirus sweep the nation, upending life and businesses alike. Out-of-home retail and discretionary categories such as durables, auto, fashion, lifestyle, hospitality, food services, travel, and tourism have been the worst-hit as Covid cases remain high, leaving state governments with no option but to curtail mobility and economic activity.
Theoretically, the currency with the public should expand in sync with the nominal income, which again moves in relation to the nominal growth rate of the economy. But the correlation breaks easily when other factors come into play, says Anup Roy.
The bank expects to grow loan book by 10 per cent in the current financial year with calibrated exposure to corporate accounts and thrust on the retail segment.
The finance ministry has asked public sector banks (PSBs) to postpone the annual exercise of promoting and transferring their staff in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. The advisory issued by the Department of Financial Services (DFS) states that the promotion process has coincided with a spike in Covid-19 cases across the country along with localised lockdowns and an increase in micro-containment zones. As there are cases of bank employees or their family members being hospitalised due to Covid-19, bank, insurance companies and financial institutions must take cognizance of the issue, the advisory issued by DFS said.
At risk of entrenched rough times are sectors like hospitality and those with discretionary spends.
Covid-19, US yields, dollar to weigh on equity flows in the near term.
They say that a stimulus package may not be necessary because, unlike last year's total lockdown, public transport, including the railways and airlines, is running and the restrictions on movement are localised and, in some cases, are partial rather than total.
The government can also individually exempt the PSBs, that are to be privatisated from the two Bank Nationalisation Acts. This will bring such lenders under Banking Regulation Act, and make them companies, reports Nikunj Ohri.
The plan was to expand further, add more branches and also eventually become the third bank in India to start a wholly owned subsidiary after Singapore's DBS Bank and State Bank of Mauritius, but those plans never materialised due to lack of scale and rising non-performing assets in the country.
Although such alerts are not compulsory for the banks, this may become the norm now if payments are missed even for a day.
New-generation private sector banks such as ICICI, HDFC, Axis, Kotak etcetera owe their existence to the recommendations of the first Narasimham Committee.
Partial lockdown measures may impact movement of labour & goods, they say.
The sudden movement of the rupee - post the monetary policy - is not a reason to panic, said currency dealers. According to them, a correction was overdue for the rupee that remained the best performing currency in the region for well over a month. The rupee closed at 74.72 a dollar on Friday from its previous close of 74.60. It had dropped 1.52 per cent against the dollar on April 7 after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced its monetary policy, committing to buy Rs 1 trillion of bonds in the June quarter. A weak rupee goes well with the export narrative of the government, and is consistent with the RBI's intervention strategy that prevented an appreciation.
The idea is to do away with the need for the approval of the Core Group of Secretaries on Divestment for privatisation of companies, especially in non-strategic sectors.
For development finance institution to succeed now, the government must stand like a rock behind it and be patient.
Zero-coupon bonds don't give out interest but are issued at a deep discount to the face value, making it difficult to ascertain the net present value.
If the data breach is found to be genuine, and if the company is found guilty on the grounds of dereliction of duty, or misleading the general public and the RBI about the data breach, actions taken against it will be severe, the person quoted above said.
RuPay is working on how to increase offers to customers. It is also focused on technology innovation in the card payment system.
Bank of America (BofA) Securities expects India to be the third-largest economy in the world by 2031. The economic rise could become a reality by 2028, but the Covid pandemic delayed the pace, BofA Securities economists Indranil Sen Gupta and Aastha Gudwani wrote in a report.
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